8:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Thunder -5.5, Total: 215.5
After standing level through four entertaining battles, the Western Conference Finals has reached a seismic Game Five, as the San Antonio Spurs and the (reigning NBA Champion) Oklahoma City Thunder will break the deadlock tonight from Paycom Center, effectively rendering this a series a best-of-three affair. Why has such an emphasis been placed on winning this fifth chapter, you ask? Historically, the team that has won Game Five of a (best-of-seven) series that is tied at two games apiece has gone on to win said series roughly 82% of the time. For the Spurs (62-30, 2nd in Western Conference) that would mean creating an opportunity to return to Southern Texas and close this affair out, which would in turn propel them to their first NBA Finals since 2014. After drawing first blood in an utterly epic overtime thriller in Game One (122-115), San Antonio would cede control back to the defending champs over the next two games, putting their backs firmly against the wall in Sunday night’s sequel from Frost Bank Center. Thankfully, (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson’s troops were up to the task, as they embarrassed Oklahoma City in a one-sided 103-82 drubbing to even the series. So, what in the name of Tim Duncan changed for the Spurs, you ask? Well, in a defensive slugfest in which both teams shot below 40.0% from the field, the hosts finally took care of the basketball and stopped bleeding possessions to their opponent. In the first three contest of this WCF, they committed FIFTY-NINE turnovers shipping SEVENTY-FIVE points to their adversary, which averages out to 11.6 MORE turnovers in this series than they did in the previous five meetings. Of course, this is in stark contrast to their discipline during the regular season where they captured four victories in five meetings with OKC; in these tilts, San Antonio coughed up the rock an average 13.4 times per game, which is well below their foe’s standard during the campaign. However, injuries to the backcourt, specifically (All-Star Point Guard) De’Aaron Fox and (Rookie Guard) Dylan Harper (more on them shortly) had robbed the Spurs of that poise on the basketball. Thankfully, a return of both players has helped to stop the bleeding, for in Sunday’s victory the hosts turned the tables and committed a paltry 13 turnovers for a loss of 13 points, while in turn harassing the Thunder into 20 turnovers resulting in 25 points. It was the first time in this series that San Antonio pulled a profit in that regard (+12), which led to plenty of other advantages, including fast break points (+11), points in the paint (+14), and free-throws (+8). Game Four also saw a return form from (All-NBA Center) Victory Wembanyama, who looked more like the destructive force he was in the opener rather than star that featured in the other two sequels. Indeed, the towering Frenchman erupted for 41 points on 14-of-25 shooting (56.0%), 24 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal, and a block in Game One, though wasn’t as impactful in Games Two (21 points, 17 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 4 blocks) and Three (26 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 blocks) as Oklahoma City defended him in a much more physical manner, doing everything they could to force him out to the arc. Hell, he didn’t attempt his first field goal within the arc until the third quarter in Game Three. That would NOT be the case in Game Four, as NBA’s first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year dominated on both ends, with 33 points on 11-of-22 shooting (50.0%), including 8-of-15 on two-pointers (53.3%), along with 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and 3 blocks. Furthermore, he was aggressive to the point of forcing the officials to blow their whistle, netting 8-of-9 free-throws (88.9%), while his team as a whole knocked down 24-of-32 attempts. Don’t forget that getting to the charity stripe is oftentimes just as important as taking care of the basketball, particularly in a matchup such as this versus a foe that thrives off turning you over and speeding things up. As long as the Spurs take care of the ball and get to the line, then they should be able to set up their stifling halfcourt defense and keep the game played at their preferred tempo.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have certainly been the more rewarding side against the spread this season (56-40-1), leading to a net profit of 10.40 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for nearly four months now, for they are a stellar 31-17 ATS since February 1st, covering fourteen of their last twenty-one outings dating back to the regular season, including twelve of nineteen in these playoffs. San Antonio is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten games away from Frost Bank Center, while swapping those ledgers when receiving the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops are on a 5-1 run ATS on the road, with an identical record in such ventures versus a foe with a winning home record, while also covering five out of six immediately after scoring 100+ points. Furthermore, they are 6-1 ATS in games played on Tuesday nights, for what that is worth. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their grand return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 6-8 in the Conference Finals, with their last triumph at this stage coming back in 2014, which was coincidentally a 4-2 conquest of the Thunder, serving as their penultimate triumph before capturing their last NBA Title. These clubs have met on six previous occasions in the postseason, with San Antonio taking four of them, while splitting their two encounters in the WCF (2012 and 2014). Furthermore, they are 6-4 SU in their last ten meetings (6-4 ATS), including 6-3 SU and ATS this season. For those wondering, six of the last seven meetings in Oklahoma City has gone under the projected total. As for Wembanyama, he averaged 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 blocks on shooting splits of 52.4/62.5/63.6 despite logging just 25.1 minutes per game in those regular season affairs. Following Sunday night’s blowout victory, the public is eager to jump back on San Antonio’s bandwagon, with approximately 57% of all wagers placed upon the spread riding with the visitors, with an even larger share of the overall money wagered on this front following suit (65%). On the injury front, both Fox (ankle) and Harper (leg) continued to be hampered by their respective injuries, combining for 19 points on 7-of-17 shooting (41.1%), along with 15 rebounds and 7 assists, with the latter coming off the bench. Apart from that, Johnson has a largely healthy group on his hands, though it will be interesting to see if these two guards manage to get healthier as this series continues. Looking ahead, the Spurs are 14-9 in all best-of-seven series in which the stood level through four games, going on to win Game Five on fifteen occasions (65.2%).
Meanwhile, with a golden opportunity to put their boot to the neck of the adversary and take a commanding 3-1 lead back home, the Thunder (64-18, 1st in Western Conference) instead suffered their worst defeat of the playoffs and now stand level with the series hanging in the balance. Indeed, absolutely nothing went right for Oklahoma City in Sunday night’s embarrassing 103-82 drubbing in Southern Texas. Offensively, (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops looked like a side looked like a lottery team praying for good fortune instead of the reigning NBA Champions; the visitors were relegated to a dreadful 33.0% shooting from the field, including 6-of-33 from beyond the arc (18.2%), were outrebounded 52-47. and committed nearly as many turnovers (20) as assists (22). Furthermore, they were -14 in the paint, -8 from the charity stripe, -11 in transition, and -9 from three. As we discussed earlier, the most damning figure was their 20 turnovers and the 25 points thrown away from them. Over the past three seasons, no team in the Association has thrived off the chaos created from turnovers than OKC has, who are so often off to the races once they get the ball in their hands. Daigneault has long championed flooding the paint and dancing in and out passing lanes to ensure this. For the most part, that approached worked well through the first three games of this series, as the champs forced an average of 19.6 turnovers for 25.0 points from. However, in Game Four they could only harass San Antonio to the point of 13 turnovers and 13 points from. So, what in the name of Scott Brooks changed, you ask? We covered earlier how the Spurs have managed to get healthier in their backcourt, which certainly played a role in cutting down the mistakes, but it also needs to be mentioned that the Thunder are dealing with absences of their own, as both (former All-Star Swingman) Jalen Williams and (emerging Guard) Ajay Mitchell are both out for the foreseeable future with respective maladies (more on that in a bit). As a result, that bench that was so incredibly productive in Games Two and Three (+85 points!!!), was far less so in Game Four, authoring 34 points equating to a +4 advantage. Then again, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, folks, for when reserves are taken out of their comfort zones and asked to carry a heavier load for a prolonged period of time, they often struggle to do so. (Sophomore Guard) Jared McCain, who was acquired at the Trade Deadline from Philadelphia erupted for 24 points on 10-of-21 shooting (47.1%) in Game Three, only to be held to 4 points on 1-of-10 shooting (10.0%) two days later. Ditto for (backup Center) Jaylin Williams, who went off for 18 points on the strength of 5-of-6 shooting from three (83.3%) on Friday night. He could muster only 3 points. This is where (2-time reigning MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander must rise to the occasion and carry Oklahoma City to glory, even against an opponent that has made life more than difficult for him. Through four games, SGA has averaged 24.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 block, which is far from a poor stat line, though his shooting splits (.392/.267) tell a very different story, as the Spurs’ size and length has disrupted his industrious mid-range game. Granted, he has been able to supplement matters by getting to the charity stripe, which has long been both a hallmark of his and a point of contention from his opponents (not to mention the fans). Gilgeous-Alexander is 33-of-34 on free-throws (97.1%) in this series, though it should be noted that Thunder as a team is -14 on makes and -17 on attempts. Sure, the Canadian international has led the NBA in free-throws made in each of the past four seasons, but he now faces a defense that in many regards has been cultivated to slow him down.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (45-48), resulting in a net loss of 7.50 units. This is a team that is a mediocre 14-12 ATS over their last twenty-six outings, covering seven of their twelve playoff games, all but a pair of which have come as double-digit favorites. Given their status as reigning champs, it comes as no surprise that Daigneault’s troops have frequently been sizable favorites, with the oddsmakers favoring them by 10+ points on a whopping FIFTY-THREE occasions (26-27 ATS), though that hasn’t been the case in any of the previous four games of this series. OKC is 8-2 SU but 6-4 ATS in their last ten games at Paycom Center, while winning all but one of their last ten tilts as a favorite (6-4 ATS). Furthermore, they are on a 7-2 run ATS versus an adversary owning a winning percentage above .600, but are in the midst of a 2-5 malaise ATS against a foe with a road win percentage north of that same figure. Taking into account their time as the Supersonics, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 4-7 series record in the Western Conference Finals, including a 2-3 mark since moving to Oklahoma City. Of course, it was only last year that Daigneault & Co reached this stage, besting the Timberwolves in last May’s WCF in what was a gentleman’s sweep. The Thunder have taken just one of the last three playoff encounters with the Spurs, with the most recent coming on this stage twelve years ago, which ended in six games. Oklahoma City has generally been a good bet against San Antonio, owning a 26-12-1 portfolio ATS over their past twenty-nine affairs, though they have only able to earn three victories in nine clashes dating back to the regular season. It was of no fault of Gilgeous-Alexander’s, who remained prolific, averaging 29.5 points on 50.6% shooting, along with 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in four contests during the campaign. On the injury front, Daigneault & Co are without the aforementioned Williams once again, who missed six straight games prior to Monday’s opener, including the entire series against the Lakers dealing with a strained hamstring. The 25-year-old was sidelined for FORTY-NINE games during the regular season due to complications with various injuries ranging from his knee to his hamstring, including a stretch of twenty-six out of twenty-eight games from late January to mid-March. Also, the aforementoned Mitchell will be joining him due to a soleus strain in his right calf muscle. Together, they have combined for an average of 32.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 2.8 steals in these playoffs, with the latter draining a lethal 45.5% of his treys thus far. Looking ahead, the Thunder are 10-8 in all best-of-seven series that were squared away at 2-2, going on to win Game Five on eight occasions (44.4%).