8:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Spurs -3.5, Total: 218.5
The Western Conference Finals reaches its sixth chapter tonight as the scene shifts back to Southern Texas, where the (reigning NBA Champion) Oklahoma City Thunder look to punch their ticket to a second straight NBA Finals, while the San Antonio Spurs are desperate to draw level once again and force a decisive Game Seven on Saturday night. After getting absolutely hammered in a 103-82 drubbing in Game Four, the Thunder (64-18, 1st in Western Conference) returned the favor in Tuesday night’s 127-114 victory at Paycom Center, placing them on the precipice of returning to the NBA Finals. This one was never really that close, folks, as the hosts led by as many 20 points early in the second half. (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops built their lead in the second quarter, where they outscored San Antonio 40-31, shooting 11-of-20 from the field (55.0%), including 4-of-7 from beyond the arc (57.1%), and an industrious 14-of-14 from the charity stripe (100.0%). If you are one of the many viewers out there that have been turned off by Oklahoma City’s prolific trips to the line, then this game certainly wasn’t for the faint of heart. In totality, they shot 33-of-38 on free-throws (86.8%), which is their highest total of not only this series, but the playoffs as a whole. In fact, that figure would clock in at their third-most free-throws made dating back to the regular season. Of course, we have all become acquainted with the narrative that OKC thrives off of “gaming the system” and “foul baiting”, when in reality, the numbers tell a different story. Sure, (2-time reigning MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led the Association in free-throws four years running and was 16-of-17 from the stripe on Tuesday night, but as a collective unit, his team ranked a middling seventeenth in free-throws attempted (23.2), fourteenth in makes (19.0), and thirteenth in FT/FGA Ratio (.213), all the while only attempting an average of 1.3 more singles than their opponents. Furthermore, those statistics have been comparable in these playoffs with 19.8 makes and 23.3 attempts, which are +0.3 and +0.5 more than their foes. To put that into perspective, they have actually attempted ELEVEN fewer free-throws than the Spurs in this series! So, what are really complaining about, people? Are they clever at drawing fouls? Absolutely, but so are most stellar offensive teams throughout the history of the NBA. Anyways, getting back to Game Five, Gilgeous-Alexander (pictured below) scored a series-high 32 points despite continuing to work hard against San Antonio’s defense (7-of-19 FG), while (Sophomore Guard) Jared McCain, who has been thrust into a more prominent role due to injuries int he backcourt (much more on that in a bit) added 20 points of his own. As for the twin towers of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, they combined for 28 points, 26 rebounds, 5 assists, and a pair of blocks, while shooting a combined 12-of-17 from the field (70.5%). As a team, the Thunder shot a healthy 48.2% overall and 14-of-32 from downtown (43.8%), with their productive bench scoring 40 points. It would be hard to fathom OKC even being in this series without their reserves, who between Games Two and Five are a whopping +95 in comparison to their counterparts, averaging to a differential of +23.7 points per game.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (46-48), resulting in a net loss of 6.60 units. This is a team that is 15-12 ATS over their last twenty-seven outings, covering eight of their thirteen playoff games, all but a pair of which have come as favorites. OKC is 7-3 SU but 5-5 ATS in their last ten games away from Paycom Center, while winning just three of their last ten tilts as an underdog (4-6 ATS). Furthermore, they are on an 8-2 run ATS versus an adversary owning a winning percentage above .600, which is once again the case tonight. Taking into account their time as the Supersonics, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 4-7 series record in the Western Conference Finals, including a 2-3 mark since moving to Oklahoma City. Of course, it was only last year that Daigneault & Co reached this stage, besting the Timberwolves in last May’s WCF in what was a gentleman’s sweep. The Thunder have taken just one of the last three playoff encounters with the Spurs, with the most recent coming on this stage twelve years ago, which ended in six games. Oklahoma City has generally been a good bet against San Antonio, owning a 27-12-1 portfolio ATS over their past thirty affairs, though they have only been able to earn four victories in ten clashes dating back to the regular season. It was of no fault of Gilgeous-Alexander’s, who remained prolific, averaging 29.5 points on 50.6% shooting, along with 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in four contests during the campaign. On the injury front, Daigneault & Co are without the aforementioned Williams once again, who missed six straight games prior to Monday’s opener, including the entire series against the Lakers dealing with a strained hamstring. The 25-year-old was sidelined for FORTY-NINE games during the regular season due to complications with various injuries ranging from his knee to his hamstring, including a stretch of twenty-six out of twenty-eight games from late January to mid-March. The aforementioned Mitchell will be joining him due to a soleus strain in his right calf muscle. Together, they have combined for an average of 32.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 2.8 steals in these playoffs, with the latter draining a lethal 45.5% of his treys thus far. Also, (veteran defensive sparkplug) Alex Caruso has also popped up on the latest injury report after exiting Tuesday’s victory with a tender ankle, though that could have been simply a case of precaution given that the game was well in hand. The 32-year-old has been a MAJOR factor in this series off the bench, erupting for 31 points in the opener, before totaling 22 points and 6 assists in Game Five. Looking ahead, the Thunder are 12-2 in all best-of-seven series in which they have led 3-2, going on conclude such a series in Game Six on seven occasions (50.0%).
Meanwhile, after drawing level in Game Four, the Spurs (62-20, 2nd in Western Conference) have to be disappointed with the outcome of Tuesday night’s 127-114 defeat. Simply put, San Antonio did a wealth of good in a game where they lost by thirteen points. What in the name of Manu Ginobili are we talking about, you ask? Well, let’s just look at how this series has progressed. After getting burned on points off turnovers through the first three games (-25.0 points per game), they turned the tables and were +12 in Game Four, going on to enjoy a +2 advantage in Game Five. The visitors forced 17 turnovers in this one, resulting in 22 points off, with much of that figure contributing to their commanding 26-9 edge in fast break points. Furthermore, they did a great job of being active in not only harassing their adversary but were also strong on the offensive glass with 15 rebounds, which is a big reason as to why they managed to attempt nine shots. For those wondering, they spent plenty of time at the charity stripe too, netting 28-of-32 free-throws (87.5%), finishing the night at just a -5 deficit. With these traditionally all being categories that Oklahoma City has bludgeoned their foes in, how is that (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson’s troops were bested in such fashion? To break it down for you, this has commonly referred to as a make-or-miss league, and on Tuesday night, the visitors didn’t make nearly enough shots. On the whole, the Spurs shot 40.2% from the field, including 12-of-41 from beyond the arc (29.3%), dishing out 25 assists in comparison to committing 15 turnovers, which led to 20 points in the opposite direction. (All-NBA Center) Victor Wembanyama authored easily his worst offensive performance of the series, totaling 20 points on a miserable 4-of-15 shooting from the field (26.7%), including 0-of-5 from downtown, with the bulk of his production from the stripe (12-of-12 FT), while also being limited to just 6 rebounds and a one assist. This clearly isn’t enough for the towering Frenchman, who had previously been nothing short of a destructive force in this series, averaging 30.3 points on 52.6% shooting from the floor and 42.9% from three, with 13.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 3.0 blocks through the previous four games. Sure, OKC has been overly physical with him throughout the matchup, trying everything at their disposal to push him out of the paint, which was the case on Tuesday night, where he shot just 4-of-10 on two-point field goals, which led to a minor advantage in the paint (+8). We have seen 22-year-old produce some downright monstrous performances in this series, including 41/24 in the opener and 33/8 in Game Four, making it clear that that is the level that is required to get the job done against the defending champs. However, he clearly needs help too, which may be hard to come by given the injuries in the backcourt (more on that shortly). Both (All-Star Point Guard) De’Aaron Fox and (Rookie Guard) Dylan Harper have been playing through maladies, while (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle endured a sloppy start to the series, committing an untenable 20 turnovers in the first two games alone. To his credit, Castle has cleaned up his act, leading the team with 24 points in Game Four, shooting 7-of-11 from the field (63.6%), with 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. Julian Champagnie added 22 points and (Sixth Man of the Year) Keldon Johnson chipped in with 15 points off the bench, shooting a collective 15-of-28 from the field (53.5%) and 5-of-12 from long range (41.6%).
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have certainly been the more rewarding side against the spread this season (56-41-1), leading to a net profit of 9.40 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for nearly four months now, for they are a stellar 31-18 ATS since February 1st, covering fourteen of their last twenty-two outings dating back to the regular season, including twelve of twenty in these playoffs. San Antonio is 6-4 both SU and ATS in their last ten games at Frost Bank Center, while going 7-3 on both fronts over their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops are in the midst of a 6-1 run ATS immediately after shipping 100+ points in the previous contest, which includes a 4-game win streak ATS after relinquishing 125+ points, while also posting a 22-5 ledger ATS on Thursday nights. However, they have covered only one of their last five games versus an adversary owning a win percentage north of .600, while matching that mark in the Conference Finals. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their grand return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 6-8 in the Conference Finals, with their last triumph at this stage coming back in 2014, which was coincidentally a 4-2 conquest of the Thunder, serving as their penultimate triumph before capturing their last NBA Title. These clubs have met on six previous occasions in the postseason, with San Antonio taking four of them, while splitting their two encounters in the WCF (2012 and 2014). Furthermore, they are 6-4 SU in their last ten meetings (6-4 ATS). For those wondering, four of the last five meetings in Southern Texas have gone over the projected total. As for Wembanyama, he averaged 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 blocks on shooting splits of 52.4/62.5/63.6 despite logging just 25.1 minutes per game in those regular season affairs. Even after being pushed to the brink of elimination, the public continues to back the Spurs tonight, as approximately 58% of all wagers placed upon the spread are riding with the hosts, while an even larger share of the overall money wagered has followed suit (63%). On the injury front, both Fox (ankle) and Harper (leg) have continued to be hampered by their respective injuries, combining for 19 points on 7-of-17 shooting (41.1%), along with 15 rebounds and 7 assists in Game Five, only to author a cumulative 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting (25.0%) on Tuesday night. Apart from that, Johnson has a largely healthy group on his hands, though it will be interesting to see if these two guards can rise to the occasion and help their team stave off elimination. Looking ahead, the Spurs are just 1-13 in all best-of-seven series in which they have trailed 3-2, going on to win Game Six on five occasions (35.7%).