8:00 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Thunder -3.5, Total: 212.5
One way or another, somebody will be punching their ticket to the NBA Finals tonight, as the San Antonio Spurs and the (reigning NBA Champion) Oklahoma City Thunder meet for the final time in this Game Seven of the Western Conference Finals from Paycom Center. For the second time in three games, the Spurs (62-20, 2nd in Western Conference) have rallied back to level the series, though they will be looking for their first victory on the road since drawing first blood in the opener. Indeed, San Antonio is well ahead of schedule, returning to the playoffs after a dismal 6-year hiatus and advancing to their first WCF since 2017, though are nonetheless on the precipice of reaching their first NBA Finals in twelve years. So, let’s take a moment to reflect on how they got to this point, shall we? Well, just as they have in the past, this is a franchise that has benefitted greatly from some serious luck in the NBA Draft, winning the lottery three years ago and selecting (All-NBA Center) Victor Wembanyama with the first overall pick in 2023, serving as the foundation for this rebuild. From there, they drafted third and second overall in the ensuing two drafts, picking (Guards) Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper with those selections, while adding more pieces in the form of (All-Star Point Guard) De’Aaron Fox in a trade with the Kings. During this stretch, (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson succeeded the legendary Gregg Popovich on the sideline, furthering the development of this young group. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Wembanyama has developed into a generational star, becoming the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history, while finishing third in MVP voting. The towering Frenchman 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and a league-best 3.1 blocks, all the while shooting 51.2% from the field, 34.9% from three, and 82.7% from the charity stripe. That stellar play has only continued into the playoffs, as the Spurs handled both the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves with ease, now pushing the defending champs to the brink of elimination. Then again, after taking four of five meetings during the regular season, they were perhaps the only team that could legitimately threaten the Thunder. With this series standing level through six games, this has been an extremely competitive matchup, much more so than it was during the regular season, though after falling victim to injuries and mistakes early on, the momentum is trending in San Antonio’s favor. In Game Six, a 118-91 victory in Southern Texas, the hosts tightened their defense in relegating Oklahoma City to 37.2% shooting from the field and 10-of-40 from downtown (25.0%), where they would outscore them by a 15-point margin. After conceding 33 free-throws on Tuesday night, they were much more disciplined in defending the visitors, relinquishing just 11 singles, leading to a healthy +11 differential. Furthermore, they cleaned up their own mistakes in possession and drew level on turnovers (13-13), outscoring them 15-11 in from, and earning edges in transition (+8) and in the paint (+6). Of course, this was in large part due to the aggressive play of Wembanyama, who finished the night with 28 points on 10-of-21 shooting (47.6%), including 4-of-9 from three (44.4%), 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and a pair of blocks. Castle added 17 points, 5 rebounds, 9 assists, and a steal, while Harper bounced back from a dreadful Game Five with 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists off the bench.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have certainly been the more rewarding side against the spread this season (57-41-1), leading to a net profit of 10.30 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for nearly four months now, for they are a stellar 32-18 ATS since February 1st, covering fifteen of their last twenty-three outings dating back to the regular season, including thirteen of twenty-one in these playoffs. San Antonio is 6-4 both SU and ATS in their last ten games away from Frost Bank Center, while going 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS over their past ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops are in the midst of a 4-1 run ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points in the previous game, though it should be noted that they have covered just two of their last seven tilts played on Saturday night (for what that is worth). Furthermore, they have covered two of their last six games versus an adversary owning a win percentage north of .600. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their grand return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 6-8 in the Conference Finals, with their last triumph at this stage coming back in 2014, which was coincidentally a 4-2 conquest of the Thunder, serving as their penultimate triumph before capturing their last NBA Title. These clubs have met on six previous occasions in the postseason, with San Antonio taking four of them, while splitting their two encounters in the WCF (2012 and 2014). Furthermore, they are 6-4 SU in their last ten meetings (6-4 ATS). For those wondering, six of the last eight meetings in Oklahoma City have gone under the projected total. As for Wembanyama, he has averaged 28.2 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 3.0 blocks on shooting splits of .482/.371/.920 in this series. After drawing level on Thursday night, the public are backing the visitors in this finale, with approximately 56% of all wagers placed upon the spread choosing San Antonio, with a slightly smaller share of the overall money wagered thus far following suit (54%). On the injury front, Fox (ankle) and Harper (leg) have been trending in opposite directions of late; over the past three games, the former has clearly been hindered, averaging just 8.7 points on 27.0% shooting, while the latter has fared better recently with 18 points off the bench in Game Six. The Spurs are 4-7 in all Game Sevens, losing each of their last two such affairs, with their last triumph coming in the 2014 first round against the Mavericks.
Meanwhile, for the third time in the last two years, the Thunder (64-18, 1st in Western Conference) find themselves in a Game Seven, looking to keep their ledger clean in that regard. After sweeping through the first two rounds of these playoffs with relative ease, Oklahoma City has predictably met plenty of resistance in the Western Conference Finals, with this series certainly living up to the hype. Of course, the narrative coming into this set was how the defending champs would adjust against a team that OWNED them during the regular season, besting them in all but one of their five encounters. That record has been balanced thus far, though it has been rather remarkable how OKC has performed in victory opposed to defeat. Through six games, the story has been thus: in three victories, they have been efficient and prolific, though it has been a different story in three defeats with an attack that has left a lot to be desired. So, let’s take a moment to run down the numbers, shall we? In three wins, (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops have averaged a robust 124.0 points on 48.0% shooting from the field, including a blistering 41.5% from beyond the arc and 52.6% from within it, while also doing plenty of work at the charity stripe, logging 26.6 points on free-throws alone, not to mention dishing out a healthy 29.6 assists opposed to committing just 12.6 turnovers. However, in their trio of losses, they have been unrecognizable on this end of the hardwood, scoring a paltry 96.3 points on 37.0% shooting overall, including 27.0% from three and 43.4% on twos, with 14.3 points from the stripe, 23.0 assists, and an inflated 16.0 turnovers. Simply put, that is a HUGE variance between outcomes, folks. So, what in the name of Russell Westbrook has caused this, you ask? Well, this has long been a team that has thrived off of the chaos created by forcing turnovers, feasting on forcing turnovers to create extra possessions for themselves that oftentimes result in easy shots, be they in transition or in the paint. However, they haven’t been able to consistently count upon that in this series, as San Antonio has done a tremendous job of flooding the paint and pressuring them on the perimeter. It also hasn’t helped that the Thunder have been shorthanded for much of this set, with (former All-NBA Swingman) Jalen Williams and (emerging Guard) Ajay Mitchell missing multiple games apiece with various injuries (much more on that in a bit). Sure, the bench has stepped up, erupting for 133 points between Games Two and Three, but the longer this series has lasted and the more expanded roles that the reserves have assumed, has lessened their impact. And then there are the stars of the team. (2-time reigning MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and (All-Star Center) Chet Holmgren have each been subject to the proverbial rollercoaster of performances. The former has averaged 24.3 points, but has been hounded throughout the series, shooting just 37.9% from the field and 26.1% from three, due in large part to much of his mid-range game (which is lifeblood) being taken away by the Spurs’ defense. The latter has struggled even more, posting just 11.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.5 steals, and 1.0 block, while netting a poor 27.3% of his treys, which is a direct byproduct of his time spent defending the aforementioned Wembanyama. Game Six’s 118-91 defeat saw both stars suffer greatly; Gilgeous-Alexander was held to a series low 15 points on 6-of-18 shooting (33.3%), including 0-of-5 from three and a subdued 3-of-3 from the free-throw line, while Holmgren could muster just 10 points on 4-of-8 shooting (50.0%), though did total 11 rebounds and a pair of blocks. OKC needs much more from these two than what they received on Thursday night, otherwise their designs on repeating will turn into booking their vacation prematurely.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (46-49), resulting in a net loss of 7.60 units. This is a team that has been fairly mediocre (15-13 ATS) over their last twenty-eight outings, covering eight of their fourteen playoff games, all but three of which have come as favorites. OKC is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games at Paycom Center, while winning just nine of ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers (6-4 ATS). Furthermore, they are on an 8-3 run ATS versus an adversary owning a winning percentage above .600, while covering four of their last five home games against a foe with a winning road ledger, with each trend relevant tonight. For what it is worth, they are also on a 2-5 slide ATS on Saturday nights, matching the mark of their opponent. Taking into account their time as the Supersonics, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 4-7 series record in the Western Conference Finals, including a 2-3 mark since moving to Oklahoma City. Of course, it was only last year that Daigneault & Co reached this stage, besting the Timberwolves in last May’s WCF in what was a gentleman’s sweep. The Thunder have taken just one of the last three playoff encounters with the Spurs, with the most recent coming on this stage twelve years ago, which ended in six games. Oklahoma City has generally been a good bet against San Antonio, owning a 27-13-1 portfolio ATS over their past thirty-one affairs, though they have only been able to earn five victories in eleven clashes dating back to the regular season. On the injury front, Daigneault & Co are without the aforementioned Williams once again, who briefly returned in Game Six, before being ruled out for tonight’s finale. The 25-year-old was sidelined for FORTY-NINE games during the regular season due to complications with various injuries ranging from his knee to his hamstring, including a stretch of twenty-six out of twenty-eight games from late January to mid-March. Furthermore, he has missed all but five games in these playoffs, including Games Three, Four, and Five of the WCF. Unfortunately, he’s not the only absence, for the Mitchell will be joining him due to a soleus strain in his right calf muscle. Together, they have combined for an average of 32.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 2.8 steals in these playoffs, with the latter draining a lethal 45.5% of his treys thus far. The Thunder are 8-5 in all Game Sevens, winning each of their last two such affairs, with the most recent being their conquest of the Pacers in last June’s NBA Finals.