8:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Knicks -2.5, Total: 216.5
Now that we officially have ourselves a series after Monday night’s Game Three, we’re about to see just what kind of series the 2026 NBA Finals is going to be, as the San Antonio Spurs look to draw level tonight at Madison Square Garden, while the New York Knicks are in turn aiming for a commanding 3-1 lead. After coming up agonizingly short in each of the first two games of this series, the Spurs (62-20, 2nd in Western Conference) finally found a way to close down the stretch in a 115-111 affair. One of the more prevailing narratives during this lengthy playoff run, their first following a 6-year hiatus, is how young this team really is and if/when that inexperience would betray them. For those wondering, San Antonio is the second-youngest team in NBA history to reach the Finals, owning a roster with an average age of 25.1 years old. However, they have proven to be mature beyond their years throughout this postseason, as evidenced by their conquest of the (reigning NBA Champion) Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, in which they rallied back from multiple deficits. With that being said, they also became just the third team in NBA history to lose each of their first two games of the Finals on their home floor, joining the 1993 Suns and 1995 Magic, who were eventually defeated in six and four games respectively. Interestingly, (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson’s troops found themselves holding a late lead with 2:30 left to play in each of those two losses. In Game One, they retook the lead late only to be outscored 11-0 over the final 76 seconds, before rallying back from a 12-point deficit with 0:57 remaining in Game Two, though once again fell victim to untimely mistakes, losing the ball due to an errant pass from (All-NBA Center) Victor Wembanyama to (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle, with the big fella leaning into a foul immediately as the visitors recovered the rock. As New York split the ensuing free-throws, San Antonio would have one final opportunity to win the game, but Wembanyama’s potential game-winner from the elbow failed to hit the mark, ending the affair in familiar disappointment for the home side. This, of course, brings us to Monday night’s sequel in the Big Apple, where the visitors reversed course and handled their business down the stretch. After a third consecutive strong start, the Spurs were blindsided in the second quarter (-18) heading into intermission trailing 64-57. However, the second half proved to be a very different story, as their defense clamped down and held the hosts to just 47 points. To put that into perspective, the Knicks scored 42 points in the second period alone. It was very much a physical slugfest after halftime, in which San Antonio was clearly the more aggressive side and were by all accounts rewarded for it by the officials; they shot an industrious 20-of-24 from the charity stripe, attempting SIXTEEN more free-throws than their opponent (more on that in a bit), which proved to be the difference in a battle in which both teams shot below 40.0% from the field. There were no greater examples of this aggression than Wembanyama and Castle, who became the first teammates in Finals history aged 22 or younger to score 20+ points apiece. After a disappointing opener, the towering Frenchman was dominant in Game Three, totaling 32 points on 11-of-18 shooting (61.1%), 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks, with the bulk of his production coming in the paint (9-of-16) and from the stripe (8-of-9). With this performance, Wemby joined the legendary Tim Duncan as the only Spurs to post at least 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in the Finals, while his 70 blocks in these playoffs are the most recorded since the Hall of Famer’s championship run in 2003. Simply put, when he plays like this, it makes life so much easier for his teammates, which was the case for Castle, who played a major role in Monday’s affair after struggling through the first two games. Indeed, the UConn product shot just 12-of-30 (40.0%) from the field in Games One and Two, only to respond with 23 points on 8-of-14 shooting (57.1%), along with 5 rebounds and assists, draining a clutch trey on a broken play with 1:53 left to play in regulation. His defense on the ball was another major factor in the victory, as San Antonio harassed New York throughout the night, forcing 13 turnovers for a 21-7 edge in points off. With Game Three in the books, this is just the second Finals in which the road team has won the first three games, though it is worth noting that there has never been such a series that has seen four road victors in as many contests.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have been very rewarding against the spread this season (59-43-1), leading to a net profit of 10.10 units. Even after the events of the past three games, this is a team that has been remarkably consistent for four months now, for they are a stellar 34-20 ATS since February 1st, covering seventeen of their last twenty-seven outings dating back to the regular season, including fifteen of twenty-five in these playoffs. San Antonio is 7-3 both SU and ATS in their last ten games away from Frost Bank Center, while going 6-4 on both fronts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops have covered just four of their last ten games versus an adversary owning a win percentage north of .600, which is once again the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their seventh appearance in the NBA Finals where they have amassed a stellar 5-1 ledger. Of course, the Spurs and Knicks have met on this stage before, as the former kicked off their dynasty with a gentleman’s sweep of the latter back in 1999, a series that was headlined by Hall of Famers such as Tim Duncan, David Robinson, and (legendary Head Coach) Gregg Popovich. In contrast to that affair from yesteryear, this particular matchup is proving to be if nothing else, more prolific; a touchstone of its era, the 1999 NBA Finals was an absolute GRIND, for neither team managed to crack 100 points in any of the five games, with the Spurs being the only team to even cross 90 points, doing so just once. Furthermore, three of the past four encounters have gone under the projected total, with Monday night’s affair in the Big Apple finally snapping that trend. As for more recent affairs, San Antonio is 4-6 SU and ATS in their last ten showdowns with New York, losing all but two of their past ten trips to Madison Square Garden. After meeting getting on the board in Game Three, the public has begun to cycle back to the Spurs, with approximately 49% of all wagers placed upon the spread backing the visitors, though the overall money wagered on this front has been more hesitant (43%). On the injury front, both (All-Star Point Guard) De’Aaron Fox (ankle) and (Rookie Guard) Dylan Harper (knee) were slowed in the previous series due to respective maladies, though after a disappointing opener they have put in stronger shifts over the past two games, particularly the former, who nailed a clutch midrange jumper in the waning moments at MSG. Looking ahead, the Spurs are a dismal 3-13 in all best-of-seven series in which they have faced a 1-2 deficit, going on to level said series on seven occasions (43.7%). Furthermore, this is the first time that they have found themselves trailing the Finals through three games.
Meanwhile, hosting their first NBA Finals affair since 1999 and standing halfway towards potentially securing their first Larry O’Brien trophy in 53 years, what do the Knicks (53-29, 3rd in Eastern Conference) do? They promptly ended the second-longest playoff winning streak in NBA history, that’s what. Indeed, after dominating the opposition for thirteen games, New York finally met defeat for the first time since April 23rd, missing a golden opportunity to take a commanding 3-0 lead at Madison Square Garden, all but assuring that there would be a championship parade traveling down Time’s Square. So, after six weeks of perfection, where did it all go wrong for the Knickerbockers, you ask? Well, there are a variety of reasons, folks, but for the sake of time, we will narrow it down to a few factors. First and foremost, this is the NBA Finals, and they are no longer facing their brethren in the Eastern Conference, whom they absolutely pummeled en route to reaching this stage. The Knicks went 12-2 through the first three rounds of the playoffs, with all but one of those wins coming by 10+ points. Meanwhile, the Spurs have represented a very different adversary, with these games proving to be much closer matchups, as the first three contests have been decided by a total of 16 points. As we covered earlier, New York found themselves trailing by double-digits in all three games, though managed to rally back and steal the first two in Southern Texas, taking advantage of San Antonio’s relative youth and inexperience in clutch moments. And speaking of clutch, (All-Stars) Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, who have been MAJOR components of their success in the playoffs, were absolutely essential in those tilts, with the former making a series of increasingly difficult shots in those fourth quarters, while the latter’s sublime play on both ends of the hardwood had earned him universal praise. Monday’s 115-111 affair painted an altogether different picture though, as each player suffered their struggles in defeat. Despite averaging a robust 27.3 points through three games, Brunson has had a helluva time even reaching that figure, shooting a dismal 37.0% from the field, including 7-of-22 from downtown (31.8%), totaling as many turnovers as assists (13). He has attempted at least 25 shots in each chapter of this series, which has coincided with the decline of his team’s offensive efficiency. During the first eleven games of their win streak, the offense was firing on all cylinders, averaging 122.9 points on 53.3% shooting, including 41.3% from three, with 28.3 assists along the way, only to see those numbers plummet in Games One and Two to 105.0 points on 41.5% shooting overall and 35.1% from long-range, with 34.5 assists. In Game Three, they managed to shoot a better (45.5%), though were held to a mere 18 assists, which is their lowest mark of these playoffs. Basically, what we’re trying to convey here is that the tempo has slowed down dramatically, with the offense reverting to a more heliocentric form around Brunson, which has been the opposite of what has brought them such success in (Head Coach) Mike Brown’s first year on the job. Indeed, the 2-time Coach of the Year had tapped into the best version of their group by implementing a diverse, motion-like scheme that got the most out of not just his best players, but the supporting cast as well. With Captain Clutch dribbling the ball into dust, the fluidity disappears and his teammates struggle to find a rhythm. Case in point: after giving Wembanyama fits through two games, averaging 19.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.0 block on shooting splits of .556/.429/1.000, the sharpshooting big fella was reduced to just 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting (40.0%) and 0-of-2 from three. To put that into perspective, it was his lowest scoring output in 8 games. Again, this attack was nothing short of stationary, which made them much easier to defend as they seemed intent on just chucking treys down the stretch; New York was 12-of-34 from beyond the arc on the night (35.1%), but could scarcely throw the ball into the ocean in fourth quarter, netting just 2-of-14 attempts (14.2%). And lastly, there is the matter of free-throws, which Brown emphasized in the post-game presser. San Antonio shot 10 more free-throws in totality, though attempted 16 more in second half, ultimately leading to a 7-point disparity in favor of the visitors. Through three games, the Knicks have been outscored by 14 points at the stripe and have attempted 23 fewer free-throws.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks make their grand Finals return to the Big Apple at 57-43 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 8.30 units. This is a team that has been VERY streaky throughout the campaign, compiling SEVEN different streaks of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering as many disparate stretches consisting of at least three straight non-covers. With their 13-game winning streak finally coming to an end (11-2 ATS), could the pendulum be set to swing the other way? New York is both 7-3 SU and ATS in their last ten tilts at Madsion Square Garden, while winning all but two of their past ten as a favorite and covering seven of them along the way. Furthermore, Brown’s troops are in the midst of a 9-1 run ATS at home versus a foe with a road win percentage above .600, are 8-2 ATS at Madison Square Garden against an adversary with a winning road record, and have five of their last ten games when playing on one day of rest. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-seventh appearance in the playoffs, posting a 2-6 series record in the NBA Finals, winning their last O’Brien Trophy in 1973. Ironically, their last appearance at this stage also came against the Spurs. with New York falling victim to a gentleman’s sweep in that matchup, losing Game Five at MSG by the narrowest of margins (78-77). As for more recent history, the Knickerbockers have won four of five meetings dating back to the regular season, which includes the In-Season NBA Cup Final (124-113). Interestingly, after ten straight clashes in which the home team proved victorious, the visiting side has now taken each of the past three games. On the injury front, the focus will continue to be on (Backup Center) Mitchell Robinson, who underwent surgery to repair a broken pinky finger on his right hand. Though he is far from a productive offensive weapon and has long been a liability from the charity stripe, there is no debate that he is one of the most prolific rebounding bigs in the Association, particularly on the offensive glass, where he has secured at least 4.0 such boards in five of the past six seasons, including 4.2 this campaign. Simply put, he is a HUGE reason that New York ranks second in defensive rebounding percentage (76.7%) and fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (29.3%). Through two games thus far, Robinson has been pretty much as advertised, averaging 4.7 points and 4.3 rebounds on 71.4% shooting in 11.3 minutes per contest. Looking ahead, the Knicks are 15-4 in all best-of-seven series in which they have held a 2-1 advantage, going on to win Game Four on eleven occasions (57.8%). Furthermore, that fabled championship run of 1973 met these exact criteria, as New York went on to eliminate the Lakers in five games.