Our 2026 NFL Preview reaches its penultimate destination with the AFC West, which could be wide-open for the first time in ages. After seeing their lengthy reign over the division finally come to a crushing end, will the Chiefs recapture their magic this Fall? Can the Broncos prevent the regression that has followed so many teams that have thrived off winning a plethora of close games? Is Mike McDaniel the catalyst for playoff success for the Chargers? How quickly will the Raiders latest rebuild gain traction and when can we expect to see Fernando Mendoza? As always, the Oracle has the answers to all those queries and more, ladies and gentlemen. All you need to do is read on…
Denver Broncos: Hold the Door…
After snapping an 8-year playoff drought last season, the Broncos made yet another leap in their development under (HC) Sean Payton, compiling a 14-3 ledger which ended the Chiefs’ stranglehold upon the AFC West resulting in their first division crown since 2015, while advancing to their first AFC Title Game in a decade. Unfortunately, they came up just short in a 10-7 defensive slugfest against the Patriots, where the second half was essentially contested in a blizzard. Denver lost (Sophomore QB) Bo Nix prior to that game, as the 26-year-old suffered a broken ankle in the divisional round, leaving Payton & Co to make do with his veteran backup, Jarrett Stidham. Would the ponies have advanced to Super Bowl LX had Nix been healthy? That is the persistent what if that the faithful in Mile High have been asking themselves since that fateful January night. Clearly, Payton and (GM) George Paton feel that they have a championship-caliber roster on their hands, though they nonetheless added reinforcements to get them over the proverbial hump. First and foremost, they shipped multiple picks in last spring’s draft to the Dolphins in exchange for veteran WR, Jaylen Waddle, which should be a boon to the passing game. Waddle racked up 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first 3 seasons in Miami, which is no small feat given that he shared the field with Tyreek Hill, though has failed to crack that threshold since 2023. However, much of that decline can be attributed to the health of his former QB, Tua Tagovailoa, whose lengthy absences due to concussions ultimately altered the offensive approach, putting a hard ceiling on what the pass-catchers were capable of doing in South Beach. Denver ranked 11th overall in passing yards (223.9), 16th in aerial touchdowns (25), and 18th in net yards per attempt (6.0) last year, while Nix admittedly endured what was something of an uneven campaign throwing the pigskin. This, of course, leads us to perhaps the most significant reinforcement, which is albeit an internal one to boot: Payton relinquished offensive playcalling duties and has handed the reins to QB Coach/Pass Game Coordinator, Davis Webb, who was in turn elevated to OC. The 31-year-old received plenty of attention on the coaching market, even interviewing for a few HC openings, which caused Payton to step in and keep Webb in Mile High for at least another season.
Our Take: The Broncos came oh, so close to reaching their first Super Bowl in a decade on the strength of a stifling defense and an attack that developed a serious flair for the dramatic, as Nix led them on an NFL-best 7 game-winning drives, including 5 fourth quarter comebacks. In fact, a whopping 12 of their 15 victories (including playoffs) came by a single score, with 8 of them decided by 3 or fewer points. A lot of these contests played out in a similar manner: the attack largely sputtered through 3 quarters until Nix made some plays to win it late, while the defense made it all possible by keeping their opponent stuck in neutral. While we certainly don’t foresee Denver taking a step backward defensively, it is a legitimate question as to how Nix & Co will progress with Webb now calling plays, which is something that he has yet to do on this level. After all, we have seen other teams struggle after promoting their respective QB Coaches on the strength of their relationship with their young passer (cough, Philadelphia, cough), so success is far from a given in this regard. Then there is the concern of parity. Historically, teams that win so many close games generally aren’t as fortunate to do so a year later; since 2000, clubs that have enjoyed 8 or more one-score victories have averaged just 8.5 wins in the following season, which is a dropoff of 3.3 wins. This is literally the exact fate that befell Kansas City last Fall, which should prove as a cautionary tale to their division rival, who will coincidentally face a much tougher schedule in 2026.
Kansas City Chiefs: Memento Mori
Now, we transition to the Chiefs, who as we touched upon earlier finally ran out of their late-game magic and missed the playoffs for the first since 2014 and suffered their first losing record (6-11) in 13 years. After enjoying an NFL-record 11 one-score victories in 2024, which resulted in a fifth Super Bowl appearance in 6 seasons, the bottom fell out for Kansas City as the pendulum mercilessly swung in the opposite direction. Of their 11 defeats, 9 of them came by a single score, including 7 suffered before (2-time MVP) Patrick Mahomes was lost for the rest of the campaign due to tearing multiple ligaments within his knee. Since taking over as QB1 in 2018, we’ve grown accustomed to Mahomes’ late-game heroics; of his 112 victories (including postseason), 31 have come courtesy of game-winning drives, with 26 of them being fourth quarter comebacks. That equates to nearly a quarter (23.2%) of his overall wins requiring a late comeback of some sort, which really defies the logic of sustainability. Again, Mahomes is special, we’re not here to argue that point, but what we are left to ponder is whether or not 2025’s decline was simply a blip on the radar or a sign of further regression for a team that does appear to be entering a state of transition. (Longtime HC) Andy Reid has stated that they will use every bit of caution in getting his QB back up to speed, which is interesting given that he has long championed giving his first team plenty of preseason reps. (11-time Pro-Bowl TE) Travis Kelce opted to put retirement off for at least 1 more year, while (former OC) Eric Bieniemy returned to the post where he helped the franchise claim a pair of Lombardi trophies. However, there were plenty of departures in the offseason, folks, including much of the Secondary where (Pro-Bowl CB) Trent McDuffie was traded to the Rams, while (fellow CB) Jaylen Watson followed him in free agency, along with (FS) Bryan Cook to boot. The Chiefs also parted ways with (RB) Isiah Pacheco, (WR) Hollywood Brown, (RT) Jawaan Taylor, and (Backup T) Wanya Morris. With that being said, Reid and (GM) Bett Veach did sign Super Bowl LX MVP, Kenneth Walker to replace Pacheco, while (journeyman QB) Justin Fields was brought in as an insurance policy during Mahomes’ rehab. This will no doubt be a younger, less-experienced group than what we’ve come to see in Kansas City, though will it translate to a hungrier team? That is what Reid & Co are banking on…
Our Take: It was inevitable that the Chiefs would run out of magic at some point, with last season’s collapse serving as a cold reminder that nothing lasts forever in the NFL. After enjoying what can be described as arguably the most impressive 7-year stretch of any QB in NFL history consisting of 5 Super Bowl appearances, 3 Lombardi trophies, and 2 MVP awards, Mahomes now finds himself on the comeback trail following the first major injury of his professional career. Now 30-years-old, he no longer has a stellar supporting cast littered with weapons around him, which should make for an intriguing next act to his story. How does he raise up the young roster surrounding him? Will Kelce continue to regress as he ages into his late 30s? Can Walker become that rare Super Bowl MVP to actually impress after changing teams immediately after hoisting a Lombardi? What will the learning curve be on defense as (longtime DC) Steve Spagnuolo breaks in a slew of new starters in that rebuilt Secondary? Lastly, how much gas does Reid have left in the tank? Needless to say, there are many questions to be answered this Fall, folks, meaning that there are a variety of ways the season can go for Kansas City. If they remain healthy, they should be back in the playoff picture, but we fear that their days of owning the AFC are likely behind them.
Las Vegas Raiders: Trust the Process
Following their obliteration in Super Bowl XXXVII, the Raiders have spent the vast majority of the last 23 years struggling to simply field a competitive team, what with only 2 playoff appearances along the way. During that stretch, they logged a nauseating 18 losing campaigns, while finishing dead-last in the AFC West on 9 occasions. Furthermore, they ran through a ridiculous 14 different HC, along with a revolving door of assistants, scouts, and executives. As for the roster, they’ve struggled to find impact playmakers and have thus repeatedly failed to keep them in the building for the long haul. Remarkably, they have rarely embraced a full-blown, proper rebuild over these past 2 decades, as ownership, be it the departed Al Davis or his son, Mark, have ultimately lacked the patience to see such a project through to the end. However, that finally appears to have changed in 2026, folks, as Davis and (minority Owner) Tom Brady, are spearheading what feels like the first true rebuild that the Raiders have seen since the elder Davis took over in 1966. So, what’s new in Las Vegas, you ask? Well, after securing the #1 pick in the draft, the Silver & Black became a much more attractive destination, leading to the hiring of (HC) Klint Kubiak, who was fresh off directing the Seahawks’ Offense to glory in Super Bowl LX. Representing yet another branch of the ever-growing Shanahan/McVay coaching tree, Kubiak has both the pedigree and CV to handle this project, particularly presiding over the development of (Heisman-winning QB) Fernando Mendoza, whom the franchise selected with that pick. Kubiak has worked wonders with many QBs during his career, the most recent being Sam Darnold in Seattle, which suggests that Mendoza is indeed in good hands moving forward. Alongside (GM) John Spytek, the Raiders understood that they needed to improve the supporting cast around their young passer, putting nearly $100 million in cap space to good use; Las Vegas made a massive splash with (Pro-Bowl C) Tyler Linderbaum to bolster a dreadful Offensive Line, while bulking up the defense with veterans such as (LBs) Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, and Quity Paye. Furthermore, offensive playmakers such as (TE) Brock Bowers and (Sophomore RB) Ashton Jeanty figure to improve within Kubiak’s scheme after enduring harsh times under the previous regime. Oh, and let us not forget (5-time Pro-Bowl Edge) Maxx Crosby, who was briefly traded to the Ravens before the deal ultimately collapsed over a dubiously failed physical. The 28-year-old has racked up 69.5 sacks, 133 tackles for loss, and 266 pressures since being drafted in 2019, though he should be more motivated than ever, which is bad news for opposing QBs this Fall.
Our Take: While there is a lot to like about the moves that the Raiders made on paper, we would caution against proclaiming them as a team likely to compete for the playoffs in 2026. Sure, they spent a wealth of money in free agency, but Spytek has repeatedly insisted that they are building for the long haul, with an endearing emphasis on mining the draft, which is a welcome turn of events for a franchise that has annually been among the league’s worst at doing so. Simply put, this is going to be a process, folks, particularly when it comes to Mendoza, who is expected to sit and learn behind (veteran QB) Kirk Cousins, at least for the short term. Brady has stated on multiple occasions that he believes that young QBs must do so instead of being sacrificed at the proverbial alter, which is honestly another refreshing take for a franchise that has habitually lacked patience and foresight. So, what does success look like for Las Vegas this season, you ask? Improving upon a disaster of a coaching staff should see many players perform at a higher level, which could mean big things for the likes of Bowers and Jeanty. Furthermore, the defense looks much better on paper, but that is in comparison to one of the worst units in the NFL preceding them. The Raiders are likely to improve upon last year’s ugly 3-14 finish, but unless Cousins enjoys a late career renaissance or Mendonza proceeds to relieve him of his duties and ball out of control, then reaching the playoffs remains at least a year away.
Los Angeles Chargers: The Odd Couple
Perhaps the most intriguing storyline coming into 2026 has nothing to do with a player or a HC, but the Chargers hiring (OC) Mike McDaniel to unlock their attack. For those not familiar with McDaniel, the 43-year-old spent the last 4 seasons as HC of the Dolphins, posting an unremarkable 35-33 ledger along the way with a pair of playoff appearances to boot. While that hardly seems like something to get overly excited about, those who dive deeper into his tenure in Miami will uncover an innovative, offensive genius that worked wonders with the ‘Fins until it all came crashing down. His troops ranked in the top-5 in total yards and points scored in back-to-back seasons (2022-2023), all the while maximizing the skillset of a host of playmakers, the most notable being (veteran QB) Tua Tagovailoa. However, persistent injuries to Tua forced McDaniel to alter his scheme in 2024 and 2025, and to his credit they continued to be a formidable unit. As his former employers opted for a full-blown teardown, McDaniel immediately became the most coveted offensive playcaller in the NFL, with a wealth of teams calling his agent in the spring. Eventually, he landed with the Bolts, where he looks to revolutionize an attack that despite packing plenty of playmakers, has rarely performed greater than the sum of their parts. (HC) Jim Harbaugh has been very successful throughout his coaching career, though he has notoriously employed conservative schemes, sometimes to the detriment of his QB, which in this case is Justin Herbert. After racking up the most passing yards in NFL history through the first 5 years of his career (21,093 yards), the 28-year-old has struggled to maintain that production under the current regime, with injuries to himself and his Offensive Line playing varying roles along the way. Simply put, McDaniel couldn’t ask for a more different QB than Herbert, who is a complete 180 from Tua. Standing 6’6″ with functional mobility and a cannon for an arm, the 2-time Pro-Bowler is the polar opposite of his OC’s former charge. Los Angeles has invested heavily in their attack over the past few years, particularly at OT, RB, and WR, which we are sure is what attracted McDaniel in the first place. If Harbaugh simply lets him cook, which is a mighty big if, then this unit could very well become the best version of itself, which could finally lead to the elusive playoff success that the franchise has been starved for. After all, the Chargers haven’t won a postseason affair since 2018, meeting defeat on Wild Card Weekend 3 times in the last 4 years.
Our Take: While we have no concerns over the marriage between McDaniel and Herbert, the union between the playcaller and Harbaugh is a different matter altogether, folks, for we couldn’t think of 2 more differing personalities and profiles on a single sideline. Granted, we have no inside information about how this partnership came about, though we do know that it certainly has the potential to be very fruitful for all parties involved. Herbert, (WR) Ladd McConkey, and (RB) Omarion Hampton are all primed to enjoy career campaigns under his direction, which could very well be the missing ingredient in terms of postseason success. Even with the departure of (DC) Jesse Minter, the defense should remain strong, which gives us positive feelings about Los Angeles, which in all honesty should be taken with a grain of salt given how they’ve manufactured ways to prove us wrong in the past. As long as Harbaugh and McDaniel can refrain from setting the building ablaze, then these Bolts are our pick to sit atop the ever-competitive AFC West. The only caveat is the fact that any success will likely result in McDaniel’s tenure with the franchise being over after only a single season, as he figures to attract plenty of suitors looking for a HC. Needless to say, enjoy him will you have him, LA!!!